Updated Oct. 24: Thursday’s flight into Treasuries partly reversed on Friday, but it did not disappear. U.S. Treasury data show the 10-year par yield moving from 5.13% on Oct. 21 to 4.96% on Oct. 22, then back to 5.00% on Oct. 23. The two-year yield moved from 4.81% to 4.65% and then 4.69%; the 30-year moved from 5.42% to 5.29% and then 5.33%.
That pattern is more informative than the one-day rally alone. Investors treated Treasuries as a haven during the AI-led risk selloff, but Friday’s partial retracement shows that the bond market still has to absorb high oil prices, inflation risk and next week’s dense policy-and-data calendar.
What the two-day move says
| Maturity | Oct. 21 | Oct. 22 | Oct. 23 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year | 4.81% | 4.65% | 4.69% |
| 10-year | 5.13% | 4.96% | 5.00% |
| 30-year | 5.42% | 5.29% | 5.33% |
The move was broad across the curve, which is consistent with more than a simple repricing of the next Fed meeting. A concentrated equity unwind can create simultaneous demand for liquidity, safer collateral and duration while also lowering growth expectations at the margin.
The AI question is splitting into demand and financing
The important distinction is that strong demand for compute does not rule out financing stress. Meta’s third-quarter results show the scale of the capital cycle: $34.91 billion of quarterly capital expenditures, negative $2.12 billion of free cash flow and a 2026 capex outlook of $135 billion to $145 billion.
Investors can therefore believe two things at once: compute demand can remain structurally strong, while the marginal AI project becomes less attractive if the cost of debt, equity or power rises. Our AI credit-bottleneck analysis tracks that second channel.
Oil is still the counterweight
Brent futures settled Friday at $116.72 and WTI at $103.27. Higher energy prices can raise headline inflation and inflation expectations even when risk-off flows pull Treasury yields lower. That makes the present combination unstable over a longer horizon: either geopolitical risk eases, or the inflationary cost of expensive energy becomes harder for duration markets to ignore.
The oil risk-premium dossier continues to distinguish current physical flows from the probability of a future disruption.
Next week can break the tie
The Federal Reserve decision is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET on Oct. 28, followed by the press conference at 2:30 p.m. The next morning at 8:30 a.m. ET on Oct. 29, BEA is scheduled to release both the advance Q3 GDP estimate and September personal income and outlays, including PCE prices.
Market takeaway: the haven signal survived Friday, but only partially. The 10-year at 5.00% is a better description of the setup than Thursday’s sub-5% print alone: growth and credit anxiety are pulling yields down while oil and inflation risk keep pushing back.