Markets & News
Central banks, sovereign bonds, yield curves, real yields and duration.
Treasury’s Nov. 2 borrowing estimate and Nov. 4 refunding will test whether doubled long-end buybacks continue, whether coupon auction sizes stay steady, and how much duration the market must absorb.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.96% Thursday and rebounded to 5.00% Friday. The two-day move shows safe-haven demand colliding with oil and inflation risk.
Moody’s kept France at Aa3 with a negative outlook on Oct. 23. The immediate rating event is over; the market test now shifts to the 2027 budget, deficits and debt.
After the post-CPI rate-hike scare, current prediction markets put only about a 13% chance on an Oct. 28 hike and 94 of 100 economists in a Reuters poll expect the Fed to hold.
The Fed decision lands at 2 p.m. ET Oct. 28; GDP and PCE follow at 8:30 a.m. Oct. 29, while Microsoft and Amazon earnings add an AI-capex test to the same 18-hour window.
Microsoft and Alphabet report after the Oct. 28 Fed decision, with Amazon following Oct. 29. The key market question is shifting from AI demand to who can fund the buildout without crushing cash flow.
Treasury’s Oct. 21 action adds Iran-linked people and shipping entities to the SDN list, authorizes limited wind-down and cargo-offloading activity, and updates a Russia license tied to a potential Lukoil International sale.
Rising borrowing costs, neocloud credit stress and a tougher IPO market are forcing investors to separate explosive compute demand from the returns earned on the capital financing it.