Markets & News
Jobs, inflation, GDP, consumption, credit, liquidity and the scheduled releases that reprice markets.
The Fed decision lands at 2 p.m. ET Oct. 28; GDP and PCE follow at 8:30 a.m. Oct. 29, while Microsoft and Amazon earnings add an AI-capex test to the same 18-hour window.
Rising borrowing costs, neocloud credit stress and a tougher IPO market are forcing investors to separate explosive compute demand from the returns earned on the capital financing it.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.96% Thursday and rebounded to 5.00% Friday. The two-day move shows safe-haven demand colliding with oil and inflation risk.
The AI capex debate is splitting into two questions: compute demand can stay strong while financing costs rise. Meta, CoreWeave and next week’s hyperscaler earnings will test which balance sheets can keep funding the buildout.
After the post-CPI rate-hike scare, current prediction markets put only about a 13% chance on an Oct. 28 hike and 94 of 100 economists in a Reuters poll expect the Fed to hold.
Treasury’s Nov. 2 borrowing estimate and Nov. 4 refunding will test whether doubled long-end buybacks continue, whether coupon auction sizes stay steady, and how much duration the market must absorb.
Microsoft and Alphabet report after the Oct. 28 Fed decision, with Amazon following Oct. 29. The key market question is shifting from AI demand to who can fund the buildout without crushing cash flow.
Data-center power demand is adding to copper consumption just as mine development remains slow. Recycling helps, but the near-term refined balance keeps copper a watch rather than an automatic long.
The political fight over electricity bills, water use and local siting is moving into AI capital-allocation math, potentially favoring owners of existing capacity and the strongest balance sheets.
Reported compute commitments of more than $600 billion make Anthropic’s coming IPO a test of capital intensity, supplier capacity and customer concentration — not just valuation.
Moody’s kept France at Aa3 with a negative outlook on Oct. 23. The immediate rating event is over; the market test now shifts to the 2027 budget, deficits and debt.
SpaceX is due to post third-quarter 2026 results after the close Tuesday, with a 4:30 p.m. ET webcast. Here are the market questions that matter most.