Rates & central banks · Staff byline

Evan Mercer

Evan Mercer is a Markets & News staff byline covering Federal Reserve policy, Treasury markets, sovereign rates and the macro catalysts that move duration.

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Recent reporting

Reporting by Evan Mercer

Rates

Treasury Refunding Nov. 4: Will Bigger Long-Bond Buybacks Continue?

Treasury’s Nov. 2 borrowing estimate and Nov. 4 refunding will test whether doubled long-end buybacks continue, whether coupon auction sizes stay steady, and how much duration the market must absorb.

Rates

Why Treasury yields plunged below 5% even as oil rose above $114

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 17 basis points to 4.96% as investors fled an AI-led tech selloff, even while crude climbed above $114. Here is what could extend — or reverse — the bond rally.

Economy

Fed Meets Oct. 28, Then GDP and PCE Hit Oct. 29: Why the 18-Hour Data Gap Matters

The Fed decision lands at 2 p.m. ET Oct. 28; Q3 GDP and September PCE arrive at 8:30 a.m. ET Oct. 29. The unusually tight sequence can quickly reprice the December policy path.

Rates

Fed Oct. 28 Hike Odds Collapse: Prediction Markets Near 13% as December Becomes the Base Case

After the post-CPI rate-hike scare, current prediction markets put only about a 13% chance on an Oct. 28 hike and 94 of 100 economists in a Reuters poll expect the Fed to hold.

Rates

France’s 10-year yield tops 5% ahead of Moody’s Oct. 23 rating review

France’s 10-year yield reached about 5.14%, its highest since 2002, before Moody’s scheduled Oct. 23 review. The rating decision matters, but the deeper issue is whether France can stabilize deficits and debt.