An unusually timed release is creating a blind spot in one of the weekly datasets bond traders use to assess crowded positioning. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's next Commitments of Traders (COT) report is due at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on Monday, November 16, rather than the usual Friday, under the regulator's published Veterans Day holiday schedule. It will reflect positions held as of Tuesday, November 10.
That means investors entering Friday's October Producer Price Index (PPI) release at 8:30 a.m. ET on November 13 will not yet have the fresh CFTC snapshot. The latest currently published report covers November 3 and is a backward-looking measure, not a real-time reading of how bond traders are positioned after this week's inflation developments.
What the latest 10-year Treasury COT data actually show
In the legacy futures-and-options-combined COT series for the CFTC's 10-year Treasury note market, the combined noncommercial and nonreportable net speculative position was short 903,123 contracts as of November 3. That was 45,349 contracts less short than the prior week. Open interest in the series was 7,156,315 contracts, and the speculative net short corresponded to about 12.62% of open interest.
| Measure | Nov. 3, 2026 |
|---|---|
| Legacy combined speculative net position | −903,123 contracts |
| Change from previous week | +45,349 contracts (short covering on a net basis) |
| Prior week's net position | −948,472 contracts |
| Open interest | 7,156,315 contracts |
| Net speculative position as share of open interest | −12.62% |
Data definition matters. This is legacy combined futures-and-options positioning and the net is calculated from the noncommercial and nonreportable categories. It is not an estimate of all investors' short Treasury exposure, is not the futures-only noncommercial figure, and should not be presented as the disaggregated report's managed-money category. Mixing those differently defined figures can generate contradictory headlines about whether speculative bond shorts are rising or falling.
A net position can become less negative because of short covering, new longs or both. Weekly COT data cannot by themselves establish an individual trader's motivation, and some Treasury futures positions are parts of basis trades or hedges against other instruments.
Why November 16, not November 13?
The CFTC usually publishes the previous Tuesday's futures and futures-and-options positioning at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on Friday. Its official 2026 release calendar lists November 16 as a holiday-delayed release date after Veterans Day, followed by November 20 for the next report. The data's Tuesday as-of date and the Monday publication date must be kept separate: November 16 is not a new trading-position observation date.
The distinction matters to any reader comparing COT data with price moves during November 10–13. A report that becomes public on Monday cannot be treated as something traders knew when Friday's inflation report moved the market.
Friday's PPI is the nearer rates catalyst
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has scheduled the October producer-price report for Friday, November 13, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The report is likely to attract attention because investors are trying to distinguish one-off goods and energy shocks from persistence in underlying price pressures and the Federal Reserve's policy path.
For context, the Treasury's published nominal yield curve showed the 10-year at 4.95% on November 3 and 4.98% on November 10. The 2-year moved from 4.61% to 4.73% over those dates. These are daily official par-yield observations, not transaction-level futures prices or a forecast for Friday.
| Official Treasury yield | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year | 4.61% | 4.73% | +12 basis points |
| 10-year | 4.95% | 4.98% | +3 basis points |
| 2s10s spread | +34 bp | +25 bp | −9 bp |
On those dates, the curve's 2s10s slope flattened by nine basis points. The differential alone does not prove whether the cause was inflation expectations, expected Fed policy, term premium or positioning; that requires corroborating evidence.
A hotter-than-expected PPI, especially in components relevant to consumer inflation and margins, could reinforce expectations of restrictive policy and increase near-term rates pressure. A softer report could ease some pressure, but any reaction will depend on the surprise relative to expectations, details and the broader inflation trend. The COT report released Monday would then show positions before Friday's PPI, not positions created in response to it.
What to watch when CFTC releases the new positions
Three comparisons will make the November 16 report useful: (1) whether the 10-year legacy net speculative short narrows or widens from −903,123; (2) whether the move is concentrated in noncommercial versus nonreportable positions and how open interest changes; and (3) whether consistent futures-only and combined series tell the same directional story. These checks should be made within each series, not by comparing unmatched report formats.
If speculative shorts keep shrinking while yields rise, that combination would raise a question about who is supplying bonds and why. If shorts grow while the market reprices toward a tighter Fed, it could be consistent with a more hawkish speculative stance — but futures hedges and relative-value trades remain competing explanations.
The CFTC has also outlined plans to expand COT reporting frequency later in 2026. Until a new schedule is implemented, investors should follow the regulator's published release calendar rather than assume twice-weekly data are already available.
As-of convention: This article's COT numbers use positions dated November 3, 2026; Treasury yield comparisons use official daily observations dated November 3 and 10; the PPI and November 16 COT releases are future scheduled events as of the November 12 editorial cutoff. No November 10 COT positioning values or November 13 PPI results are implied to be known yet.