November 8, 2026 — USDA is scheduled to release its November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on Tuesday, November 10 at noon Eastern. The report covers grain, oilseed and sugar supply-and-demand balances, making it a known fundamental catalyst for agricultural futures. The current edition is not yet published as of this article.
What makes this release worth watching is the positioning ahead of it. The November 3 CFTC combined futures-and-options report shows speculative long exposure still net positive in key oilseed and sugar contracts, but falling over the week. Those positions are observations of traders' exposure, not evidence of what WASDE will say or how prices must move.
What was speculative positioning before the report?
| Contract | Net noncommercial + nonreportable | Weekly change |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago soybeans | +130,300 contracts | −42,016 contracts |
| Chicago soybean oil | +54,458 contracts | −19,321 contracts |
| ICE Sugar No. 11 | +271,913 contracts | −34,360 contracts |
| Chicago wheat | −75,113 contracts | −13,752 contracts |
| Chicago corn | +14,098 contracts | −62,716 contracts |
Methodology: Figures are from the CFTC's legacy combined futures-and-options categories as of November 3, including noncommercial and nonreportable positions. They are not a managed-money-only measure. Changes reflect week-on-week net position moves; a smaller net long can result from various combinations of longs and shorts.
What will matter in the November WASDE tables?
The questions are whether USDA adjusts U.S. soybean yield or production, domestic crush, exports, ending stocks, or global oilseed inventories. For other crops, traders will compare corn and wheat supply-and-use revisions with current expectations. A change must be assessed against the market's prior forecast and prices, not just the previous month's USDA table.
Soybean oil is related to soybean crushing economics and oilseed supply, but its price also reflects feedstock demand and competing vegetable oils. An increase or decrease in one USDA soybean estimate does not mechanically imply the same direction for soybean-oil futures.
What about Sugar No. 11?
WASDE reports U.S. sugar and Mexico sugar balances, whereas ICE Sugar No. 11 is a global raw-sugar benchmark. The CFTC positioning is relevant background, but the WASDE U.S./Mexico sugar tables alone cannot establish the global raw-sugar balance. Additional production and trade data would be required for that stronger claim.
Three scenarios to test after noon ET
| Observed result | Question for market reaction |
|---|---|
| Tighter-than-expected oilseed balance | Does it lift soybean prices despite reduced speculative longs? |
| Looser-than-expected balance | Do remaining net-long positions amplify selling, or was weakness already priced in? |
| Small revisions | Does attention shift to export sales, crush margins, weather or non-U.S. supply? |
These are conditional scenarios, not forecasts of the USDA release or trade recommendations.
Release schedule and sources
The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board schedules November WASDE for November 10, 2026 at 12 p.m. ET. Positioning: CFTC legacy combined report, November 3. The article should be updated after the release with the actual estimates, revisions, prior estimates, and observable market reaction.